Opportunities amid challenges

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), major producers and consumers of fertilizers are scrambling to meet both domestic and export demands. How they are responding affects each commodity in unique ways.

Potash

Prior to 2022, Russia and Belarus were major suppliers to MENA. The subsequent disorder to international trade as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war highlighted the relative scarcity of potash production in the MENA countries; efforts to create mines within the region are now gaining ground.

Emmerson PLC, based in the UK, has been promoting the US$2.5 billion Khemisset Potash Project in northern Morocco, located approximately 80 km east of the capital, Rabat. It is seeking to develop an estimated 537 million t of potash with an average grade of 9.24% potassium oxide (K₂O). Output from the mine would average 735 000 tpy of muriate of potash (MOP), and 1 million tpy of de-icing salt. Morocco has been experiencing a multi-year drought; in order to address concerns about water consumption, the company has devised a proprietary production method, the Khemisset multi-mineral process (KMP), which treats brine to remove iron chlorides and magnesium by adding phosphate and ammonia, allowing the brine to be recycled.

Eritrea is home to the Colluli Potash Project, considered to be one of the world’s lowest-cost sources of sulfate of potash (SOP), with shallow reserves of over 1 billion t. For over a decade, Australian-based Danakali had been advancing the Colluli potash mining project with Eritrean National Mining Corp. (ENAMCO), but in March 2023, Danakali sold its 50% stake to China-based Sihuan Road and Bridge Group for US$121 million. Development of the deposit is complicated by conflicts with neighbouring Sudan and Ethiopia, as well as internal dissent.

Jordan’s Arab Potash Co. (APC) produced almost 2.8 million t of potash in 2023. The country’s potash reserves are estimated to be almost 2 billion t. Using mineral-laden water from the Dead Sea, extensive artificial basins are used to produce carnallite evaporites. APC has plans to invest US$1.7 billion over the next five years in order to expand its capacity to meet growing demand in its traditional markets in Asia and the EU, as well as expand into South America.

Phosphates

Russia is a major source of phosphate; prior to 2022, it accounted for 12% of the world’s exports. Although fertilizers were not included in sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, subsequent financial controls against Russian oligarchs impacted fertilizer trade and caused prices to spike. DAP prices have since reduced to pre-war levels, but MENA countries are looking to find permanent alternatives to Russian sources.

the world’s second largest producer. OCP, the state-owned mining company responsible for phosphate mining and fertilizer production, produced approximately 12 million t of phosphate and blended fertilizers in 2023. The growth in output is due to the commissioning of two new 1 million tpy granulation units at Jorf Lasfar and the development of a greenfield chemical complex in Mzinda with a capacity of 4.2 million tpy. OCP has announced a goal of reaching 20 million tpy total capacity by 2027.

Egypt’s Misr Phosphate Co. has broken ground on a new 1 million tpy phosphoric acid plant in Abu Tartur in the New Valley Governorate. The site has an estimated 980 million t of ore, grading 30% phosphorous pentoxide (P₂O₅). Construction of the US$1 billion facility will be undertaken by a Chinese consortium; China’s Wengfu Group, one of the largest phosphate producers in the world, has signed a long-term contract to take approximately 500 000 tpy of the output.

This article was originally published in the November/December 2024 issue of World Fertilizer Magazine. To read the full article sign in or register for a free subscription.

Written by Gordon Cope, Contributing Editor.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldfertilizer.com/environment/28012025/opportunities-amid-challenges/