Ammonium sulfate predicted to steer Brazil’s urea imports in 2026

Brazil's urea imports have historically been 2 million - 3 million tpy higher than its amsul imports, but urea's lead has eroded as amsul has become more affordable for farmers. Amsul is also more easily available and has less volatile pricing. Brazil's amsul imports almost tripled over 2018 - 2024, rising to more than 6 million tpy, while urea imports increased by almost 2 million tpy to around 8 million tpy over the same period.

Argus-assessed amsul prices averaged US$178/t cfr over August - November, which is when Brazil does its lion's share of its amsul buying, in line with the same period in 2024. Amsul prices averaged US$244/t cfr over August-November 2020 - 2024. Brazil imported nearly equal volumes of urea and amsul in January-November this year, at around 6.7million t of each product, trade data show.

Going into 2026, Brazil will maintain its position as the only market capable of absorbing leftover amsul in the market, but Chinese output will probably fall next year, which could compensate for some Chinese supplies being redirected to Brazil and away from other regions.

Mexico re-imposed an US$181/t import duty on Chinese amsul on 25 November. The onset of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism from 1 January may keep European buyers away from Chinese imports, at least in the 1Q26. Depending on the specifics of the regulation, some Chinese amsul producers may be rendered uncompetitive in the European market.

Meanwhile, the Chinese caprolactam-grade amsul industry is likely to adopt a more ‘self-disciplined’ strategy in 2026, keeping operating rates below 80% and being more cautious to commit to contracts of affreightment. Most compacted amsul shipments from China to Brazil are covered by contracts of affreightment, which can lead to a build-up of unsold amsul in Brazil during the peak season, which may pressure equivalent urea purchases or offers.

Buyers usually expect the price per nitrogen unit to be lower in amsul than urea, as amsul requires additional logistical and operational costs to bring the fertilizer to the fields and to apply. Twice the volume of amsul is required compared with urea for an equivalent amount of nitrogen.

Affordability has been a key concern globally in 2025, with record highs for urea prices. Brazil is no exception, with the Argus nitrogen affordability index for Brazil averaging 0.87 over January-November, compared with 1.05 in the past four years. The lower the index, the worse fertilizer affordability is for farmers against their crop sales, making lower-cost nitrogen sources such as amsul more attractive.

Weather conditions also affect urea-amsul substitution. Amsul is less volatile than urea, with the latter losing its nitrogen content easily during heatwaves or period of heavy rainfall, reducing the amount of nutrient available for the crop. Amsul can be stored more easily for long periods in warehouses compared with urea, which is more sensitive to heat.

Availability and pricing are important considerations but there are a few barriers to amsul increasing its market share against urea.

Corn is the main crop that can substitute urea with amsul. But falling corn prices are discouraging farmers from investing in the crop. Using more amsul over a long period can change the acid-to-alkaline balance of the soil, hampering yields, market participants said.

The extent to which amsul can be successfully substituted depends on the region, the soil specifications in each field and which other fertilizers are being combined with it in NPK blends. Brazil can successfully swap amsul for urea as a raw material for most blends, but not those with single super phosphate, as the combined sulfur content would be too high.

The availability of suitable trucks has also been a concern in 2025, preventing inland amsul transport. Record grain exports will continue to compete with fertilizer imports for trucks at Brazilian ports in 2026, meaning urea will be easier to transport as half as much is needed compared with amsul. Lastly, Brazil's fertilizer storage capacity is small and fertilizers compete with agricultural products for warehouse space, preventing large volumes being imported.

Find the original article by Upasruti Biswas, Gisele Augusto and Bruno Castro on Argus Media.

Read the article online at: https://www.worldfertilizer.com/sulfur/23122025/ammonium-sulfate-predicted-to-steer-brazils-urea-imports-in-2026/