ICIS has reported that global fertilizer markets have continued to navigate an exceptionally volatile period as geopolitical disruption, tightening supply chains, and uneven demand has reshaped prices across the spectrum of fertilizer products.
The supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as the central shock, removing significant volumes of urea, sulfur and related feedstock products from international markets, forcing buyers to seek alternative supplies at sharply higher costs.
At the same time, production curbs linked to gas constraints and security incidents are compounding tightness across fertilizer production chains. Moreover, the US-Israel war with Iran could disrupt India’s fertilizer supply at an important time for the upcoming kharif season.
Despite government assurances that fertilizer supplies are sufficient for the kharif sowing season, delayed Middle Eastern shipments and India’s reliance on Qatar for roughly 40% of urea plant gas have prompted authorities to consider additional measures, including potential imports and tentative government-to-government (G2G) talks with China.
Demand has remained mixed. While application season in Europe and North America has been lending support to ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate (AN) markets, buyers in Asia and Latin America remain cautious, delaying purchases whenever possible due to uncertainty.
China’s expanding export restrictions on phosphate products are further amplifying supply-side constraints, while India’s procurement and fertilizer subsidy decisions remain pivotal for the global supply and demand balance. Across all products, freight and insurance costs have become as important a consideration as any fundamentals.
Urea
Urea trading has slowed as clarity is awaited on peace talks between Iran and the US and stakeholder wait to see if talks might yield a ceasefire that would allow the reopening of safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Buyers are holding back on expectations that diplomatic pressure from Gulf states, China, and India on the US and Iran could help ease tensions and lead to some form of resolution and help temper the surge in prices.
Global prices are rising despite the slowdown in buying interest, as supply disruptions deepen.
Shipments from the Arab Gulf have now been suspended for a month. The region typically exports around 1.5 million tpm of urea, while Iran accounts for another 350 000 tpm.
In Algeria, fertilizer production has been cut to 50% of capacity after gas supplies were halved as the country looks to prioritise gas exports.
Russian supply has also tightened further as Ukrainian drone strikes continue, with TogliattiAzot, a large Russian fertilizer plant, having gone offline. The drone-related fire at Ust-Luga, in western Russia, was confined to oil infrastructure, allowing fertilizer loadings to continue, but it underlines how vulnerable Russian ports are to future disruptions.
Signals from China continue to point towards a clampdown on exports, after the government suspended shipments of specialty and phosphate fertilizers.
Buying is limited to smaller parcels in Egypt, where prices have touched US$800/t fob, while Nigerian cargoes are moving to Australia despite more stringent inspection requirements at ports.
Overall demand has been hit as most buyers are unable to afford current prices. Australia is paying the highest prices at present, and while the US continues to lag international values and liquidity remains thin in Brazil and Latin America.
The window for US imports is narrowing, with early to first-half April loadings the latest viable option, as cargoes must reach New Orleans by 15 May to move inland in time for application.
India is taking its time to issue another import tender as it focuses for now on securing additional gas supplies to prevent any further decline in domestic production, but an announcement cannot be delayed for much longer.
Urea prices are up 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February, yet remain 25 - 35% below the March 2022 peak.
Ammonia
Ammonia markets are tightening as Middle East supply remains absent, while demand is starting to pick up in Europe and Turkey ahead of the nitrates application season. Tight vessel availability and feedstock disruptions are pushing prices higher across Asia, with rising concerns over further supply chain disruptions into the 2Q26.
In Australia, the Yara Pilbara plant will stay offline for 4 - 6 weeks due to a power outage that is expected to affect nearby Orica’s nitrates production, but also the wider region in Asia as Yara exports ammonia there.
Asia is starting to feel the lack of Middle East material, with Taiwan’s Formosa closing a purchase tender and China starting to offer export tonnes. Indian buyers are slowly back in the market for tonnes and prices at higher levels.
In Europe, natural gas TTF prices have started to stabilise, but they are still high and ammonia buyers will start looking for material with the only option that has product available being Algeria.
Ammonia market activity in North America remains mixed, with seasonal, pricing and geopolitical factors shaping demand and sentiment. In Canada, market activity is still subdued, with fertilizer application typically not gathering momentum until spring conditions are more fully established, usually in May.
In the US, ammonia application and spring plantings are progressing, particularly in the Corn Belt, as terminal prices continue to rise. Discussions have started around the April Tampa contract, with expectations growing that settlement values will move higher. This outlook is being supported by increasing global nitrogen prices amid the Middle East conflict, which continues to disrupt fertilizer production and trade flows.
Sulfur
The global sulfur market continues to be defined by exceptional uncertainty, both in pricing outlook and supply fundamentals. Availability remains tight across most regions, and in the absence of export volumes from the Middle East, buyers are turning to Canada, which has emerged as one of the key alternative supply sources capable of offering relative stability.
Demand remains notably strong, driven by phosphate fertilizer producers, the rapidly expanding requirements of battery-metal refining – particularly nickel high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) – and ongoing needs from industrial chemical manufacturers.
This, combined with sharply rising freight rates and elevated insurance costs, is pushing up sulfur prices. Market participants warn that these price levels may prove unsustainable, and the financial strain from high sulfur values could push weaker producers toward curtailments or even bankruptcy.
The price escalation is being felt across nearly all regions, except the Middle East – where producers have material but are largely unable to ship due to the disruption caused by the conflict and logistical paralysis following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the US and Europe, buyers and suppliers are negotiating 2Q26 contract prices, while producers in the Middle East have yet to commit to any new monthly official prices, reflecting the unstable operating environment and the difficulty in assessing forward market direction.
In Asia, some business has reportedly been concluded in Indonesia, while buyers in China are resisting the higher sulfur prices.
Sulfuric acid
With little movement heard on a negotiated peace in the Middle East conflict, pricing continues to firm across the global sulfuric acid trade.
European export availability is thin as domestic suppliers compete to secure tonnes amid an opening to 2Q26 supply contract talks, while Chinese list pricing has extended recent increases.
Chinese domestic acid demand is notably firm amid reduced availability of Middle Eastern burner feedstock sulfur, and export offer prices continue to separately tick up where tonnes are available at all.
Saudi Arabia’s Maaden has closed a purchase tender to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, while Chilean buyers are seeking tonnes for 2Q26 and 2H26.
Phosphates
After a week of heightened activity and increased uncertainty, global phosphates markets paused to assess supply availability, logistical constraints, as well as near-term demand risks. Trading interest has cooled across key importing regions, with buyers largely retreating to the sidelines as uncertainty builds around policy, timing and physical availability.
In India and southeast Asia, immediate demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains limited. Indian buyers have been awaiting clarity on a government nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) before committing to fresh purchases. While recent purchase tenders from India’s FACT and Indonesia’s Pupuk signal underlying requirements, these are largely forward-looking and have yet to translate into spot demand. Market participants expect Indian buying interest to re-emerge once subsidy guidance is issued. On the supply side, concerns are becoming more acute. The Chinese government is understood to have expanded fertilizer export suspensions, with phosphate products now effectively unavailable for export, removing a significant source of global supply. At the same time, logistical constraints and shipment issues in the Middle East are adding uncertainty over deliveries to India.
Across Europe, fertilizer demand remains subdued, confined mostly to prompt agricultural needs. Growers are cautious, preferring to delay purchasing decisions amid wider volatility. Enquiries are emerging in select markets, but volumes remain small.
In the Americas, activity is uneven. Brazil continues to face liquidity challenges, with limited willingness from buyers to chase higher replacement costs. In the US, barge trading at New Orleans (Nola) has provided some momentum.
Overall, the phosphates market is entering a period of watchful balance, with demand deferred rather than lost, and supply risks steadily accumulating underneath the surface.
Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN)
As spring arrives in many regions of the global UAN sector, activity is beginning to steadily increase. The pace of values is still moving rapidly within key regions like the US, with a primary factor being the escalation of urea due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Demand for the new crop season is projected to be significant, with the only disruption to that trend being further supply tightness developing as farmers begin to return for more volumes, either for secondary inputs or to restock.
In Europe, concerns remain, with engagement lighter than would be typically seen as spring is starting, but there is optimism that supply will not be an issue with local production helping to sustain farmers through the season amid the current instability.
Values have increased, tracking the further gains underway with urea prices. In the US, prices have again climbed with producer CF Industries lifting its river terminal offerings for May and June.
Currently April inventory is shrinking quickly, leading to more unease over later availability, For now, farmers are not looking to buy as they are busy tending to their nutrient inputs and fresh plantings as the weather turns generally more favourable in some of the key US states.
Ammonium nitrate (AN)/calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN)
Russia has banned AN exports until the end April to protect domestic supply, after a drone hit production at Dorogobuzh in late February – a significant development, given Russia has a 40% share of global AN trade. Russia is also fully committed to local farmers, since it is peak application season for this favoured nutrient.
European sentiment is mixed. French AN prices are unchanged, while Germany is seeing strong calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) demand. Italian CAN demand is easing, while Irish CAN demand is uneven: some farmers are panic buying, while others are covered through 2026.
Turkey has lifted its AN use ban because the country is unable to secure urea from Iran. Brazil remains out of season, demand-wise. The second half of the year is typically the strongest period for Brazilian AN importers.
Potash
Demand for muriate of potash (MOP) is steady as the nutrient remains an affordable option amid the chaos stemming from the Middle East conflict. Offer pricing into southeast Asia has been stable, although granular imports to the agricultural powerhouse of Brazil have hit US$395/t cfr, supported by producers’ messages of pending tightness.
Talks for India’s next annual MOP import contract are expected to open later in April or May, while Indian importer NFL has scrapped a recent purchase tender after receiving offers at US$400/t cfr-plus.
Industry insights have been provided by Chris Vlachopoulos.
Additional reporting was done by Deepika Thapliyal, Julia Meehan, Sylvia Traganida, Manuja Pandey, Andy Hemphill, Mark Milam and Yashas Mudumbai.