Egyptian urea sales are still taking place for cargoes loading in April 2026, while production rates have remained unchanged as LNG deliveries continue to Egypt.
Israel's suspension of gas exports following the outbreak of war with Iran has removed approximately one LNG cargo every four days from Egypt's supply balance.
Egypt had secured three LNG cargoes for mid-March delivery before implementing broader energy-saving measures in the wake of the broader regional unrest. The government appeared focused on curbing domestic demand, rather than paying elevated spot prices, as it looks to preserve foreign currency reserves, contain inflation, and maintain supply stability.
Although urea plants have remained unaffected by the measures so far, producers acknowledge that the industry is not fully insulated from wider gas management policies, raising the risk that output could come under pressure if supply constraints persist.
Egyptian producers have reported selling about 260 000 t of granular urea for January – April loading so far in 2026, against potential export availability of 1.4 million – 1.6 million t over the same period.
In addition to the reported sales, Argus Media estimated that a further 200 000 - 250 000 t – or potentially more – of March-loading Egyptian urea has already been placed into India and the US. These volumes will help to narrow – but not eliminate – the sizeable gap between reported and potential exports and may point to comparatively high producer inventories or quantities sent to the domestic market.
Producers' sales reported in 2026 include approximately 36 000 t for January loading, 80 000 t for February, around 84 000 t for March and about 60 000 t for April to date.
Domestic–export sales split
Egypt has 7.2 million - 7.3 million tpy of urea capacity and allocates a sizeable part of its output to the domestic market, leaving around 350 000 - 400 000 t/month for export.
The country exported an average of about 4.5 million tpy of urea in 2023 - 2025. The domestic season typically peaks in June – September.
Output fluctuates on both a monthly and annual basis, reflecting planned turnarounds, variations in gas availability – particularly during the summer peak power period – and intermittent disruptions to gas flows from Israel in recent years.
Original article written by Dana Hjeij for Argus Media.